Explain? Correct me if I'm wrong but there's nothing that can be done with polygon based graphics that can't be done with raytraced poly free graphics. Pixel shaders etc are simply attempting to emulate what raytracing has done for years.
They're not emulating anything. Pixel shaders are just code. You can have them do whatever you want. If you want them to raytrace, they can. If you want them to do something else, they can do that too. So it would be going backwards in my estimation, to go from a system which can already raytrace ( among other things ) to one which can only raytrace.
Frequently it does make sense to tear stuff down and start again.
Perhaps, but I don't see any argument for it here. What's the payoff? You say that pixel shaders are only "emulating" ( although I don't understand what this means ) so presumably you want to get rid of them in favour of a hardcoded solution. Hardcoded solutions are necessarily less flexible. If I accept that a flexibility loss too is necessary sometimes, what's my payoff? What do I get to make up for the loss of flexibility?
I can't see how a nurb model could possibly be less detailed than polygon.
Because you no longer model polygon by polygon, that's why. These days the highest resolution models are painted with brushes in programs like MudBox, ZBrush and 3DBrush. You can literally take a texture and paint it onto a mid-res model and have the program generate the polygons to represent it. Creating a nurbs surface to approximate that would be like painting a picture and then blurring it. You lose a little detail.
As JohnJ says, Nurbs are a great way of modelling, but they're for smooth curve, not sharp detail. For sharp detail, you either need texture maps or geometry created from them.
Raytracing doesn't rule out using poly meshes anyway!
Well now I'm really confused, because I don't know what you're left with. You already stepped back away from pure raytracing in reponse to previous comments about non-photo-realism and normal mapping, etc. Although since you also dismissed pixel shaders, I'm not sure how you think you're going to get all these features which are currently only possible with pixel shaders. But anyway, now you're stepping back from ditching polygons too. If you take away the painting of the pixels and the creation of the geometry, what exactly are you suggesting is going to change? And what to?
The bottom line is you already can raytrace, if you want to. I'm sure a quick google will show up a bunch of raytracers written in pixel shaders. The current architecture not only permits it, it excels at it. You don't have to multithread anything because multithreading on GPU's is automatic with pixel shaders. Each pixel is considered separately and bears no relation to any other pixel. So this means that the shader for each pixel can be run in parallel. 2,4,8,16,32.. however many shaders your videocard can run in parallel, it does. There's no room for error, and no need to debug because there is zero concurrency. Possibly fortuitously, but they just happen to have made a hardware architecture which is ideal for raytracing and where dozens of cores as CPU's get more complex just makes things better and better.
Ray traced shadows have been about for ages. They're called stencil volumes and John Carmack is a big fan. They're pretty slow though, even more so if you try to generate soft shadows with them, and they're pretty error prone, so they've been phased out in favour of more reliable and faster methods. But still, it's perfectly possible and even more so in DX10 where nothing needs to be done on the CPU.
Realtime lightmapping is already around too. There's Precomputed radiance transfer via spherical harmonics, essentially realtime global illumination. There's ambient occlusion mapping, which I think someone did a demo of around here. Might have been Halo?
All the effects are already possible, even if some of them have taken a backseat as better methods have cropped up.