nexgenwars.com is malware site (source: google)
Miscellaneous Forums/General Discussion/nexgenwars.com is malware site (source: google)
http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=nexgenwars&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&client=firefox-a
Also this:
http://boardsus.playstation.com/playstation/board/message?board.id=ps3&thread.id=1397709Turns out its all bogus numbers generated from time passing. Made by an 18 year old.
Uh... I want to make a site like this, and this time the target is Blitz3D vs DarkBasicPro vs 3DGameStudio...
And I'll make B3D win.....
I figured this out the first time I looked at the site.
Like Perturbatio, I thought this was fairly obvious. I guess people lose their scepticism when the numbers are telling them what they want to hear.
There is a difference between scepticism and actually knowing something. :)
interesting site Big10p.
Erm, I knew my sig was doing me more harm than good...
So basically all these people (like WedgeBob) who have these so called sales figures for consoles in their sigs are just running a bunch of crap produced by a yoot?
There is a difference between scepticism and actually knowing something. :)
Of course. My "scepticism" comment was aimed mainly at people who were plastering it in their signature without a second thought as to whether it could be entirely fabricated.
Well, I guess that this sig is finally gonna kick the bucket if I have my way. Guess I need to find a new sig, and a new forum screen name after all this.
There, done, back to my old self again.
the numbers were close enough to give you a good indicator of how things were going. Don't think anyone expected them to be accurate. The figures were often posted by more reliable sources and usualy matched up quite well within a week.
Xbox had a big lead and doing ok, Wii was doing well, PS3 poor. That was pretty much what it was saying, and it was accurate in that regard.
Don't think anyone expected them to be accurate.
That's funny. I seem to recall you saying that you were unsure if they were shipped figures or sold figures. Strangely, that didn't give me the impression that you thought they were completely fabricated figures.
the numbers were close enough to give you a good indicator of how things were going.
How does making up a number from the top of your head and then adding an arbitrary constant over a period of time get you to "close enough to be a good indicator"?
The figures were often posted by more reliable sources and usualy matched up quite well within a week.
Well if "more reliable" figures are matching up well with a php random number generator, I'd be questioning the "more reliable" figures personally.
It was obvious that the numbers didn't line up exactly with what had been reported, but that they did stick farily close. It's not completely un-scientific to take the official release numbers (at 3 points in time would work great) and then come up with a growth interval and then have it spit out approximations. The projections given by nexgenwars.com might be just that, but is it really bogus? Every business, marketing, and analysis group in the world does similar projections for all businesses. In the Internet age with information at everyone's fingertips does it really matter if it's an 18 year old kid or Wedbush Morgan...?
Let's see, here's the annalysts' report by Wedbush Morgan:
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14709If you look at nexgenwars.com the numbers for the Wii go up 2 units every 5 seconds and 1 unity every 10 seconds for the PS3.
So the kid is going around resetting the numbers to the official numbers when they are released and then using algorithms which seem to yield similar growth the the projection models for the 'big' firms.
Microsoft is doing OK, Nintendo stock is at a 6 year high (their market cap just eclipsed Sony's), and the PS3 really is getting kicked to the curb.
No harm no foul?
the numbers were close enough to give you a good indicator of how things were going.
Kind of like how
creationism is "close enough" to give you a credible and scientific explanation for how the universe came into existence?
In the Internet age with information at everyone's fingertips does it really matter if it's an 18 year old kid or Wedbush Morgan...?
No. What matters is whether they where using statistically sound data and methodology, or just making random stuff up.
He got a video for this?!
Computer discoveries on video are annoying.
Seems like a perfectly legitimate approach to me. It's constantly corrected with real figures, there's clearly no intention to mislead.
I agree with JP. It's certainly true that this could be coded by a 5 years old geek, but if it's regularly updated by published numbers I don't see the problem.
Surely noone was expecting that the "realtime" update was more than a "guesstimation" based on previous numbers, right?
Google is doing just that for its estimation of offered GMail space, I see nobody crying and shouting.
Ok, well I guess I was fooled by all the haters. If it is indeed a well known way of providing sales results then I take back my comment.
It's constantly corrected with real figures,
No. It's constantly "corrected" with 1 unit every 5 seconds (for the Wii) for instance, which is not a "real figure". For every week in between "real numbers" the Wii sales is a real figure all of 5 seconds, and then for the next 600 thousand odd seconds, it's just a meaningless arbitrary number.
Surely noone was expecting that the "realtime" update was more than a "guesstimation" based on previous numbers, right?
The point is that it wasn't based on previous numbers, so much as arbitrary ones.
Google is doing just that for its estimation of offered GMail space, I see nobody crying and shouting.
I somehow doubt Google estimation of GMail space is just adding another MB every 5 seconds, and then recalibrating the system every month or so. More likely they're using some queue theory algorithm to accurately determine the amount of disk space needed, at any given time, based on for instance a Poisson distribution.
No. It's constantly "corrected" with 1 unit every 5 seconds (for the Wii) for instance, which is not a "real figure". For every week in between "real numbers" the Wii sales is a real figure all of 5 seconds, and then for the next 600 thousand odd seconds, it's just a meaningless arbitrary number.
What?
On a different topic: Who cares?
Boo hoo, Wii has sold more than PS3, 360 has sold more than Wii.
It doesn't make any "gamer"'s manliness any bigger.
Unless one of them rises to Heaven and another disappears off the face of the Earth (two very unlikely outcomes), none of these consoles will "win" or "lose". They will continue to attempt to entertain people, succeeding more with some people than with others.
I am surprised "hardcore gamers" do not realize this after all these years: Selling game consoles is not a game; playing game consoles is a game.
What Picklesworth said.
Kind of like how creationism is "close enough" to give you a credible and scientific explanation for how the universe came into existence?
Wow ... you're just reaching so far with that comment.
I think the point has been made, by JP and others. You can predict sales numbers with some accuracy. Sure there's a margin of error but when you're just predicting 3 numbers based on ~1 years worth of data it's not a really big margin of error like you'd get with an explanation of the universe itself.
I think FlameDuck is expecting the counter on that site to update immediately when a console is actually sold, across the globe. :D
I think FlameDuck is expecting the counter on that site to update immediately when a console is actually sold, across the globe. :D
Well you're entitled to your opinion, even when you're wrong.
LOL - I was joking. This is an act you're putting on, right? This "I'm always right and everyone else is an idiot" personality is hilarious. :D
I somehow doubt Google estimation of GMail space is just adding another MB every 5 seconds, and then recalibrating the system every month or so
Google's counter of how much diskspace you had available was most definitely was time-related -- I don't know if they still do this or not, but when they first started having the incremental counter, you would see a different amounts simply by changing the date/time on your computer back and forth
I think the point has been made, by JP and others. You can predict sales numbers with some accuracy. Sure there's a margin of error but when you're just predicting 3 numbers based on ~1 years worth of data it's not a really big margin of error like you'd get with an explanation of the universe itself
But that's
not what it is doing.
If it actually took, say, the last three data points (at least, but ~1 year would be nice) for each console, and predicted the sales trend, and then gave an estimate of where it is now, then I might agree with you and JP.
But my understanding is that it just adds an arbitrary amount on to a real sales figure based on the time. Hence I side with FD who (in his own inimitable way) is saying that even if the original sales figure is correct, as soon as you start adding some pre-determined numbers to that figure, it has no meaning. Particularly if those "real" numbers are only updated once per month!
Google's counter of how much diskspace you had available was most definitely was time-related
I didn't say it wasn't time related. I said that it wasn't a linear relation between time and diskspace, and that adding one discrete amount of one (time) would not add another discrete amount of the other (diskspace), ad infinum.
But my understanding is that it just adds an arbitrary amount on to a real sales figure based on the time.
Is it completely arbitrary and a coincidence that it just happens to be increasing at the same pace that Wedbush Morgan predicted?
Additionally, it states this on the site anyway ...
The console sales numbers you see on the front page of NexGen Wars are estimates, and are not intended to represent exact, down to the minute sales as only Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony know the exact sales figures of their respective consoles. What we do here at NexGen Wars is compile numbers from NPD, Media Create, ChartTrack, as well as various other sources. We then take these numbers and, based on past sales trends, extrapolate the numbers out to give as close to real-time estimates as possible. Again, these are only estimates, but we are confident in our ability to bring you accurate and unbiased sales figures. Not only do we extrapolate the numbers out so they don't lag months behind with the official sales numbers, but we also update the numbers when new official numbers have been released to keep our estimates as accurate as possible.
Is it completely arbitrary and a coincidence that it just happens to be increasing at the same pace that Wedbush Morgan predicted?
Except it isn't, but even if it was, then either a) Yes it is a coincidence, or b) Wedbush Morgans numbers are pulled out of his backside as well.
Additionally, it states this on the site anyway ...
Yes. But that's not what they're actually doing! That's the whole point of this thread. Have you not been reading very closely?
Yes. But that's not what they're actually doing! That's the whole point of this thread. Have you not been reading very closely?
I don't see anything to the contrary. The video posted is ridiculous. The first method it uses to prove the site's bogus is the age of it's creator. That is reaching, and has nothing to do with the validity of the site.
It's taking a time increment and passing it to the php script which is where the calculations take place. The numbers aren't going up at random as I stated before. The Wii is outpacing the PS3 4:1 just as reported by other major analysts.
The numbers aren't the exact sales numbers but the site doesn't attempt to pass them off as exact. They are close enough to give you a reasonable idea of who's winning the next gen war.
While I can't find a single definitive link that state how the algorithm works, there are several that suggest the algorithm is as simple as:
number sold now =
number sold at last update +
time since last update * (number sold at last update / time between launch and last update).
They base this on simple monitoring of the numbers, in particular paying attention to times when they get adjusted, most notably the continual resetting downwards of the 360 figure. In fact, that one point (which I have to admit I haven't verified) - that numbers are currently continually being reset downwards - does lend credence to something like the above calculation, as the average sales rate will naturally be much higher than the sales rate at this time of year.
In reality, until this chap publishes his algorithm (which there is no way he'd do, particularly now - unless it is fantastically complex, or amended first), we can never know the truth. vgcharts is probably better, but still not going to be accurate.
And anyway, why do we care? The Wii is selling shedloads, the x360 and ps3 are comparatively stagnant (except for ps3 in the us, and quite possibly only short term because of the price drop). It will stay that way until Christmas selling kicks in. And it's only after this Christmas that we can really start to talk about who's "winning", unless you decide, like me, that the answer is "us gamers".
I don't get it- the guys doing a bit of guesswork- So what, did you expect he was going to have accurate figures? No, round-about figures, yes.
And how the hell does this mean the site is Malware?
I think people on this topic got stuck and bored coding their game.