Do you agree with these predictions

Some BBC predictions:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/6178611.stm

including:

- bloggin will peak next year (kinda assumes that everyone is already on the Internet which isn't true).
- Vista will be the last Windows release. Some of of you may think "YAY", others "Nay".
- PCs will be half price by 2010. (Yeah and video cards will cost the same price as the PC (still) probably)
- something else about malware and also mobiles.
- in 2010 Puki's PC will still be rubbish.

bloggin will be half price by 2010 and still be rubbish.

I estimate that by then onboard videochips are so fast that you don't need any other videocard. Naturally you might think that a dedicated videocard would be faster.. and it prolly is. But what about gamecompanies? If onboard equals the majority, perhaps gamecompanies rather focus on this majority instead. Additionally I truly hope the 2d retro genre makes a comeback.

2D retro is God, but nonone buys it. :-( otherwise I'd be right in there...

Whaa? it sells by the bucket load just not via "Casual portals"!!

statistics please sir. Even the more well known ones like Titan Attacks haven't made the owner rich - unless you are meaning something else...

Take a look at some of the mobile phone sites and handheld stuff.

With all due respect to their authors, 99% of phone games are crap. Not because they are not graphically nice, not because the game play is bad, but because they are hopelessly slow and in most cases downright unplayable. For Pete's sake, even the slowest 8-bit computer was faster in executing games than those little mobile monsters with inadequate processors. I'd never buy mobile phone game until their speed is on par with at least Apple II or TRS-80.

Barney

Indiepath and I just continued this conversation. He was saying there is a big market for retro stuff and it's true but it's all the "original" retro games being emulated or on consoles rather than "new" retro games made for PC - and that's what I was talking about. If that market was bigger, I'd be in there! Meanwhile I'll find casual game genres that I like and make similar games to a high quality with a little slant, I guess...

Because phones and handhelds don't do 3D yet.

pocketpc's do indeed have 3d acceleration... ATI makes mobile chips for them now.

Mr Snidesmins predictions for 2010:

- Pocket PCs will be given as "free toys" in McDonalds Happy Meals.

- People will be playing "real life" to get a rest from gaming.

- No paper will exist anymore, no paper books. Everything in electronic form. Not because people prefer it that way - just because we will have run out of trees.

- Google will have successfully indexed everything it can and destroyed the rest (http://www.theonion.com/content/node/40076)

- There won't be any ice left on earth

- The average dog will be smarter than the average human.

- Super computers will be given legal "person" status in the US and given the right to vote, count the votes and "randomly" choose the outcome in case of a miscount.

That link is pretty funny mr Snidesmin, thanks.

I burst out laughing the first time I read it. . . :O)

I think there is a market for retro-looking games, with modern levels of complexity and content. In other words. I don't think many would buy a new game with 8 bit graphics and shallow one-sided gameplay. However. Let's say that you are buying an 8bit looking game with modern gameplay or at least modern levels of content. Think, final fantasy 1 graphics, with final fantasy 12 gameplay and amount of content and variation in style. Really... You would need SNES quality graphics to really feel -right- to me. That is where the console RPG really took off, and the last place it really did well, because it was the perfect look/feel for that kind of game.

I would buy a game with SNES style graphics. Provided it didn't have SNES style gameplay with SNES amounts of content. Use the faster speeds and higher storage levels to add in a million items, or 25 meta-games like farming and cooking and fishing and blah blah. Give me 10,000 enemies to fight or 500 unique playable characters.

The only way to even DO that is to not focus on graphics.. and I think enough people would buy a game like that.

But maybe there aren't enough people like me.

I would probably buy it too, if it was genuinely fun to play. Also it's probably a good idea to put off the graphics because generally its easier to add better graphics to an game later than a better game to graphics :O)

I think with retro style, ppl refer to anything which is *not* 3d. So, the classic platformers with their 16x16 tiles (with sharp-pixel quality gfx), rpg's with their birdview views, shooters a la gradius (tho I must confess I like Gradius V, tho that has 2d gameplay using modern gfx) etc. Just, not 3d and first-person view.

My Gradius V has stopped working :-( sob.

I agree with you CS_TBL but I think they also tend to be made with retro-level gameplay. I would much rather see a classic platformer level of detail, with advanced features. These seem to get made and do alright too. Look at the newer platformers from nintendo on the DS... Most of them would work without the graphical advances.

I don't think that people would -rather- play handheld games with better graphics. I think the size of the handheld market, and the popularity of the DS and even the GBA still, are more due to people prefering those games. Or at least wanting to be able to play them sometimes.

Personally. I do play my GBA when I am out. But at least half the time I am playing it -instead- of other games. Right here at home, often in bed.

Why? Because RPGs and Metroid/Castlevania Platformers on the GBA out-play the like games in 3D on the consoles. The only reason they are 3D on the consoles is because no one thinks they will sell if they are 2D. Better to have a flawed 3D game which is harder to control but looks better than to have a 2D game that is great fun.

I think there are enough people who understand that you can't translate some genres into 3D without losing playability. If for no reason other than they are super-abstracted already and the lack of depth and foreshortening makes it easier to tell what the heck is going on.

See. Bomberman.

I aim to make am updated platformer but it may have to go through a couple of incarnations first i.e. oldskool, then bit improved then much improved.... we'll see.

I have Need for Speed: Most Wanted on my phone....its pretty sweet...

So uh, is Diablo2 a 2d or 3d game? :P I'd say 2d using perspective, but the gameplay is 2d .. 'ish

I've also seen some Japanese RPG's that have a 2d'ish gameplay, it's 3d allright, but the camera is on the same spot everytime, just hanging in the air as in retro RPG's. but the floor/walls etc. are 3d. I wouldn't mind these kinda "3d" games.

..for me windows Vista will be last since I'm going to switch for MAC..thats for sure

Diablo 2 doesn't have foreshortening, so it is like oldschool isometric. Only detailed. On the other hand. Sacred is mostly 3D (If I remember right)

Really.. 2D looks better..

Vista being microsoft's last OS? doubt it

I like the Diablo games. they are basically 2D there is nothing "3D" about the gameplay.

-I have never read anyones blog, and obviously don'tdo that myself either
-M$ needs money, so they will do another when everyone has bought Vista
-PCs (decent gaming ones) will always cost the same, you just get more stuff and power with the money

I read a couple of blogs that I deem educational in the indiegame business, oh and some self-help blogs, but that's it. I'm not really into reading about people's day to day life.

2010: BlitzMax 3d module will be released; right around (a) Christmas.

> Vista being microsoft's last OS?

I believe that was last major OS, they will continue to push out updates (paid for). I would call that a 50/50 myself, depending on the definition of "major" of course.

Being that they already have a foundation in place for Vienna, I think Vista is unlikely to be their last Windows OS.

Hopefully Vista will wake them up and make them realise management was largely to blame for what they ended up with...

Anyways, I don't think I agree with a single point in that article. Except for the puki one of course.

The price of computers will go up. In 1987 when the Amiga 500 was released in Denmark, it was by anyones definition state-of-the-art. It cost 8000 Dansih wooden money. 9 months ago I paid about 27.000 Danish wooden money for a comparable peice of technology. The price of state of the art computers has more than trippled in that time span. At the time, an "entry level" computer (like the C64) cost about 500 Danish wooden money. Even the most absurd POS system you can imagine costs 10 times that today.

As for Vista being Microsofts last OS, that's just absurd too. What is Microsoft supposed to make money on in the future? Thier consoles that are being creamed by Nintendo, or their Office suite which is being creamed by Sun, Novell and IBM?

The cost may be going up in Denmark but here in the US it has been steady, and with the exception of graphics cards declining. That is also in actual dollars, add in inflation and price has certainly been going down. A top of the line PC in the eighties was roughly 4-5 thousand with a midrange being roughly 2 thousand. Same midrange today can be had for 1 thousand.