Why do you assume that when Mark says he was just guestimating, he's not referring to precisely this remark about ATI X and nVidia 6 series?
What relevance does that have? Pete wanted clarity and I gave him just that - based on what little info is out there and the fact that Mark's 'guestimate' has gone up since the tech demo he posted so many months ago - which minimum requirements were more or less an ATI 9 series and a nVidia 5 series card. The fact that his guestimate is one notch up in tech suggests to me that his tech requirements are going up alongside general next gen tech evolution.
Far Cry is a pretty shader-heavy game ( engine ) and I'm not aware of a single SM3-only effect in the game.
It also ran like crap on most SM2 hardware.
It's exactly this kind of flawed logic that Mark criticizes in that thread.
Mark criticised people taking it as gospel. Anyone in their right mind would not take information about a work in progress as gospel. I think it much more likely that this estimate will likely be increased by the time the product is released - and it's pretty definate in my mind that if the specs are in fact lower, that it would be that one notch, as opposed to GeForce 4 or 2, as your rambling would lead one to believe.